Asia expected to grow 8.2 percent this year

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THE Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for the region's economic growth this year, crediting a rapid recovery in exports even as it warned the risk of another recession in advanced countries has not completely receded.

The Manila-based development bank said it now expects developing Asia to grow 8.2 per cent this year compared with a projection of 7.5 per cent growth issued in April.

The forecast, which doesn't include Japan, covers 44 developing and newly industrialized nations in Asia.
 
"Overall, developing Asia's recovery seems to have taken firm hold," the ADB said. Increased consumer and business spending as a result of government stimulus also played its part in the recovery from the financial crisis, it said.

In predictions for individual economies, the bank maintained its forecast of 9.6 per cent growth for China, the world's second-biggest economy.

The southern Chinese financial and legal services hub Hong Kong was revised upward to 5.8 per cent. South Korea and Taiwan were raised to 6 per cent and 7.7 per cent, respectively.

India's anticipated growth was edged up from 8.2 per cent to 8.5 per cent, although the bank warned about high inflation in the south Asian nation due to scant monsoon rains in 2009 that suppressed harvests.

The Philippine economy was expected to jump 6.2 per cent - up from an earlier prediction of 3.8 per cent.

Singapore is forecast to surge 14 per cent - more than double the previous figure of 6.3 per cent.

Thailand's outlook improved from 4 per cent growth to 7 per cent.

The bank projected a 4.1 per cent expansion for Pakistan in 2010, slowing to 2.5 percent in 2011 because of the country's recent flooding.

But the bank warned about possible weakness in the US, Europe and Japan, highlighting sluggishness in the American housing market and the risk of sovereign debt defaults in Europe.

"The global recovery remains shaky, and downside risks lurk. The possibility of a double-dip recession in the major industrial economies has not receded completely," the report said.

In China, the ADB said economic growth will taper off in the second half after gross domestic product expanded 11.1 per cent in the first half as Beijing phases out expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.

Export growth is also expected to be slowed by weaker demand from some export markets.

The South Korean economy was lifted by a surge in car and semiconductor exports in the first half, but growth is projected to slow from 7.6 per cent to 4.5 per cent in the second half - also due to pared down fiscal spending.

In Taiwan, recovery was driven by electronics exports in the first half but will be dragged down in the second half by weaker demand from China - now Taiwan's biggest export market.

Surprisingly strong growth in Singapore in the first half prompted the ADB to drastically upgrade its outlook for the year. The city-state was helped by demand for chemicals, electronics and drugs, as well as financial and tourism services.

The booming Chinese market was a big booster, accounting for 40 per cent of first-half exports.

Thailand's prospects were also raised on the strength of 10.6 per cent growth in the first half despite violent anti-government protests in April and May that spooked tourists. Domestic demand help prop up the expansion.

Source: news.com.au